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Best Budget estimates of 2023-24 as compared to revised estimates of 2022-23

Budget estimates of 2023-24 as compared to revised estimates of 2022-23

Total Expenditure:

The government is projected to spend Rs 45,03,097 crore in the fiscal year 2023-24. This marks a 7.5% increase over the revised estimate of 2022-23. Out of the total expenditure, revenue expenditure is expected to be Rs 35,02,136 crore, reflecting a 1.2% increase, while capital expenditure is estimated to be Rs 10,00,961 crore, representing a significant 37.4% increase. The rise in capital expenditure is attributed to an increase in capital outlay on transportation, including railways, roads, bridges, and inland water transport, by Rs 1,28,863 crore, indicating a 36.1% increase. The expenditure on total capital outlay is projected to be Rs 8,37,127 crore in 2023-24, reflecting a 35% increase over the revised estimates for 2022-23.

Total Receipts: Government receipts (excluding borrowings) are projected to reach Rs 27,16,281 crore, reflecting an 11.7% increase over the revised estimates of 2022-23. To cover the difference between these receipts and the expenditure, borrowings are budgeted to be Rs 17,86,816 crore, marking a 1.8% increase over the revised estimate of 2022-23.

Transfer to States: The central government plans to transfer Rs 18,62,874 crore to states and union territories in the fiscal year 2023-24, marking an 8.9% increase over the revised estimates of 2022-23. This transfer to states comprises devolution of Rs 10,21,448 crore from the divisible pool of central taxes, grants totaling Rs 6,86,773 crore, and special loans amounting to Rs 1.3 lakh crore for capital expenditure.

Deficits: In the financial year 2023-24, the government has set the target for the revenue deficit at 2.9% of GDP, while the fiscal deficit is aimed at 5.9% of GDP. Additionally, the target for the primary deficit, which excludes interest payments from the fiscal deficit, is 2.3% of GDP in 2023-24. The revised estimate for the revenue deficit target has increased compared to the budgeted estimate for 2022-23. Despite higher receipts, the revised fiscal deficit target for 2022-23 remains the same. In 2022-23, the central government’s revenue deficit is expected to be 4.1% of GDP, compared to the budget estimate of 3.8% of GDP.

 

Budget estimates of 2023-24 as compared to revised estimates of 2022-23
Budget estimates of 2023-24 as compared to revised estimates of 2022-23

GDP Growth Estimate: The nominal GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 10.5% in the financial year 2023-24.

Budget at a Glance 2023-24 (Rs crore) 

The provided data presented in a tabular format:

Actuals 2021-22 Budgeted 2022-23 Revised 2022-23 Budgeted 2023-24 % Change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE)
Revenue Expenditure 32,00,926 31,94,663 34,58,959 35,02,136 1.2%
Capital Expenditure 5,92,874 7,50,246 7,28,274 10,00,961 37.4%
– Capital Outlay 5,34,499 6,10,189 6,20,204 8,37,127 35.0%
– Loans and Advances 58,376 1,40,057 1,08,070 1,63,834 51.6%
Total Expenditure 37,93,801 39,44,909 41,87,232 45,03,097 7.5%
Revenue Receipts 21,69,905 22,04,422 23,48,413 26,32,281 12.1%
Capital Receipts 39,375 79,291 83,500 84,000 0.6%
– Recoveries of Loans 24,737 14,291 23,500 23,000 -2.1%
– Other Receipts 14,638 65,000 60,000 61,000
Total Receipts (Excluding Borrowings) 22,09,280 22,83,713 24,31,913 27,16,281 11.7%
Revenue Deficit 10,31,021 9,90,241 11,10,546 8,69,855 -21.7%
% of GDP 4.4% 3.8% 4.1% 2.9% -29.3%
Fiscal Deficit 15,84,521 16,61,196 17,55,319 17,86,816 1.8%
% of GDP 6.7% 6.4% 6.4% 5.9% -7.8%
Primary Deficit 7,79,022 7,20,545 8,14,668 7,06,845 -13.2%
% of GDP 3.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% -23.3%

Please note that the “%” sign is used to represent percentage values.

In the financial year 2023-24, capital expenditure is projected to surge by 37.4% compared to the revised estimates of 2022-23, reaching Rs 10,00,961 crore. This category encompasses expenses that alter the government’s assets or liabilities, such as investments in infrastructure like road construction or loan recoveries.

On the other hand, revenue expenditure is anticipated to witness a modest increase of 1.2% over the revised estimates of 2022-23, totaling Rs 35,02,136 crore. Revenue expenses cover all other expenditures, such as salary payments and interest outlays, that do not directly impact the government’s assets or liabilities.

Disinvestment refers to the government selling its ownership shares in Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs). In the fiscal year 2022-23, the government is projected to achieve 77% of its disinvestment goal, reaching Rs 50,000 crore against a target of Rs 65,000 crore. For the upcoming fiscal year 2023-24, the disinvestment target has been set at Rs 51,000 crore.

Receipts Highlights for 2023-24 

Receipts: In the financial year 2023-24, receipts (excluding borrowings) are expected to amount to Rs 27,16,281 crore, marking an 11.7% increase compared to the revised estimates of 2022-23.

Gross tax revenue is projected to grow by 10.4% over the revised estimates of 2022-23, aligning closely with the estimated nominal GDP growth of 10.5% in 2023-24. Corporation tax and income tax are also expected to increase at the same rate as nominal GDP, which is 10.5%. Excise duties, predominantly levied on petroleum products, are anticipated to see a 5.9% rise in 2023-24. GST revenue is forecasted to experience a higher growth rate of 12%. The net tax revenue of the central government (excluding states’ share in taxes) is estimated to reach Rs 23,30,631 crore in 2023-24, reflecting an 11.7% increase over the revised estimates for 2022-23.

Devolution to states from the centre’s tax revenue is projected to reach Rs 10,21,448 crore in 2023-24, marking a 7.7% increase over the revised estimates of 2022-23. In the previous fiscal year, the devolution to states witnessed a significant increase of Rs 1,31,756 crore, rising from an initial estimate of Rs 8,16,649 crore at the budgeted stage to Rs 9,48,405 crore at the revised stage, representing a 16% increase.

Non-tax revenue is forecasted to reach Rs 3,01,650 crore in 2023-24, indicating a 15.2% increase compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23.

Capital receipts (excluding borrowings) are projected to reach Rs 84,000 crore, representing a slight increase of 0.6% compared to the revised estimates of 2022-23. Additionally, recoveries of loans and advances witnessed a significant surge in the revised estimates of 2022-23, reaching Rs 23,500 crore, which was 64% higher than the budgeted estimate of Rs 14,291 crore.

The breakdown of central government receipts for the financial year 2023-24 (in crore rupees):

Category Actuals 2021-22 Budgeted 2022-23 Revised 2022-23 Budgeted 2023-24 % Change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE)
Gross Tax Revenue 27,09,135 27,57,820 30,43,067 33,60,858 10.4%
Corporation Tax 7,12,037 7,20,000 8,35,000 9,22,675 10.5%
Taxes on Income 6,96,243 7,00,000 8,15,000 9,00,575 10.5%
Goods and Services Tax 6,98,114 7,80,000 8,54,000 9,56,600 12.0%
Customs 1,99,728 2,13,000 2,10,000 2,33,100 11.0%
Union Excise Duties 3,94,644 3,35,000 3,20,000 3,39,000 5.9%
Service Tax 1,012 2,000 1,000 500 -50.0%
Centre’s Net Tax Revenue 18,04,794 19,34,771 20,86,662 23,30,631 11.7%
Devolution to States 8,98,392 8,16,649 9,48,405 10,21,448 7.7%
Non Tax Revenue 3,65,112 2,69,651 2,61,751 3,01,650 15.2%
Interest Receipts 21,874 18,000 24,640 24,820 0.7%
Dividend 1,60,647 1,13,948 83,953 91,000 8.4%
Other Non-Tax Revenue 1,79,540 1,34,276 1,48,342 1,81,382 22.3%
Capital Receipts (without borrowings) 39,375 79,291 83,500 84,000 0.6%
Disinvestment 13,627 65,000 50,000 51,000 2.0%
Receipts (without borrowings) 22,09,281 22,83,713 24,31,913 27,16,281 11.7%
Borrowings 15,84,521 16,61,196 17,55,319 17,86,816 1.8%
Total Receipts (including borrowings) 37,93,802 39,44,909 41,87,232 45,03,097 7.5%

These figures represent the central government’s financial receipts for the specified f.y.

Indirect taxes: The government anticipates total indirect tax collections to amount to Rs 15,29,200 crore in the fiscal year 2023-24. From the Goods and Services Tax (GST) alone, it aims to generate Rs 9,56,600 crore. Of this GST revenue, it expects 85% to come from Central GST (amounting to Rs 8,11,600 crore), while the remaining 15% is projected to be sourced from the GST compensation cess (equivalent to Rs 1,45,000 crore).

Corporation tax: Revenue from taxes levied on companies is forecasted to grow by 10.5% in the fiscal year 2023-24. Comparatively, corporate tax collections in 2022-23 are projected to exceed the budgeted estimate by 16%, reaching Rs 7,20,000 crore.

Income tax: Revenue from income tax is anticipated to rise by 10.5% in the 2023-24, reaching Rs 9,00,575 crore. Income tax collection in 2022-23 is projected to surpass the budgeted estimate by 16.4%.

Non-tax receipts: Non-tax revenue primarily includes interest receipts on loans extended by the central government, dividends, licence fees, tolls, and charges for government services. Dividend receipts were lower in 2022-23 compared to the initial budget mainly due to a decrease in dividends from the Reserve Bank of India. In 2023-24, non-tax revenue is anticipated to grow by 15% over the revised estimates of 2022-23.

Disinvestment target: The government has set a disinvestment target of Rs 51,000 crore for the fiscal year 2023-24. This represents a slight increase of 2% over the revised estimate of Rs 50,000 crore for the previous fiscal year, 2022-23. It’s worth noting that in 2022-23, the receipts from disinvestment are expected to be 23% lower than the budget estimate.

Expenditure Highlights for 2023-24  

Total expenditure in 2023-24 is expected to reach Rs 45,03,097 crore, marking a 7.5% increase compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23. Out of this total expenditure:

(i) Rs 14,67,880 crore is allocated for central sector schemes, reflecting a 4% increase over the revised estimate of 2022-23.

(ii) Rs 4,76,105 crore is designated for centrally sponsored schemes, representing a 5.4% increase over the revised estimate of 2022-23.

In 2023-24, the government plans to allocate Rs 2,34,359 crore towards pensions, representing a decrease of 4.3% compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23. Additionally, interest payments for 2023-24 are estimated to amount to Rs 10,79,971 crore, constituting 24% of the government’s expenditure. This marks a 14.8% increase in interest payments compared to the revised estimates of 2022-23.

Breakdown of central government expenditure for the fiscal year 2023-24 (in crore rupees):

Category Actuals 2021-22 Budgeted 2022-23 Revised 2022-23 Budgeted 2023-24 % Change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE)
Central Expenditure 29,13,970 30,06,111 32,82,936 35,13,761 7.0%
Establishment Expenditure of Centre 6,93,272 6,92,214 7,34,619 7,44,339 1.3%
Central Sector Schemes 12,09,950 11,81,084 14,11,729 14,67,880 4.0%
Other expenditure 10,10,748 11,32,813 11,36,588 13,01,542 14.5%
Grants for Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS) 8,79,832 9,38,797 9,04,296 9,89,337 9.4%
Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS) 4,54,366 4,42,781 4,51,901 4,76,105 5.4%
Finance Commission Grants 2,07,435 1,92,108 1,73,257 1,65,480 -4.5%
Rural Local Bodies 40,312 46,513 41,000 47,018 14.7%
Urban Local Bodies 16,147 22,908 15,026 24,222 61.2%
Grants-in-aid 20,272 23,294 22,135 24,466 10.5%
Post Devolution Revenue Deficit Grants 1,18,452 86,201 86,201 51,673 -40.1%
Other grants 2,18,031 3,03,908 2,79,138 3,47,752 24.6%
Total Expenditure 37,93,801 39,44,909 41,87,232 45,03,097 7.5%

This table provides a breakdown of central government expenditure for the fiscal year 2023-24, comparing actuals from 2021-22, budgeted and revised estimates from 2022-23, and budgeted estimates for 2023-24.

Expenditure by Ministries:In the fiscal year 2023-24, the ministries with the highest allocations collectively account for 55% of the estimated total expenditure. Among these, the Ministry of Defence has the highest allocation, amounting to Rs 5,93,538 crore. This allocation represents 13.2% of the total budgeted expenditure of the central government.

Other ministries with significant allocations include:

  • Road Transport and Highways, constituting 6% of the total expenditure.
  • Railways, accounting for 5.4%.
  • Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution, representing 4.6%.

Table 5 illustrates the expenditure on Ministries with the 13 highest allocations for 2023-24, along with the changes in allocation compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23.

Ministry-wise expenditure in 2023-24 (Rs crore)

Ministry Actuals 2021-22 Budgeted 2022-23 Revised 2022-23 Budgeted 2023-24 % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE)
Defence 5,00,681 5,25,166 5,84,791 5,93,538 1.5%
Road Transport and Highways 1,23,551 1,99,108 2,17,027 2,70,435 24.6%
Railways 1,35,242 1,40,367 1,62,312 2,41,268 48.6%
Food and Public Distribution 3,06,571 2,17,684 2,96,523 2,05,765 -30.6%
Home Affairs 1,68,791 1,85,777 1,93,912 1,96,035 1.1%
Chemicals and Fertilisers 1,54,789 1,07,715 2,27,681 1,78,482 -21.6%
Rural Development 1,61,643 1,38,204 1,82,382 1,59,964 -12.3%
Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare 1,22,836 1,32,514 1,18,913 1,25,036 5.1%
Communications 51,545 1,05,407 1,05,478 1,23,393 17.0%
Education 80,352 1,04,278 99,881 1,12,899 13.0%
Jal Shakti 83,467 86,189 74,029 97,278 31.4%
Health and Family Welfare 84,470 86,201 79,145 89,155 12.6%
Housing and Urban Affairs 1,06,840 76,549 74,546 76,432 2.5%
Other Ministries 17,13,022 18,39,751 17,70,613 20,33,419 14.8%
Total Expenditure 37,93,801 39,44,909 41,87,232 45,03,097 7.5%

Railways: The allocation is estimated to increase by Rs 78,956 crore (48.6%) in 2023-24, compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23. This increase is primarily due to higher capital outlay on commercial lines.

Jal Shakti: The allocation to the Ministry of Jal Shakti is estimated to increase by Rs 23,249 crore (31.4%) in 2023-24. This increase is primarily driven by a rise in the allocation for the Jal Jeevan Mission.

Road Transport and Highways: The allocation in 2023-24 is estimated to increase by Rs 53,408 crore (24.6%), primarily due to an increase in capital outlay on roads and bridges (24.5%).

Allocation towards the Ministries of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, and Chemicals and Fertilisers have decreased mainly due to a reduction in food subsidy and fertiliser subsidy. We will discuss the expenditure on subsidies below.

Expenditure on subsidies in 2023-24 is estimated to be Rs 4,03,084 crore, marking a decrease of 28.3% from the revised estimate of 2022-23 (Table 6).

  • Food subsidy: Allocation for food subsidy is estimated at Rs 1,97,350 crore in 2023-24, reflecting a 31.3% decrease from the revised estimate of 2022-23. The higher allocation in 2021-22 and 2022-23 was mainly due to the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana, providing additional foodgrains to eligible beneficiaries to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. This provision was discontinued in December 2022.
  • Fertiliser subsidy: Expenditure on fertiliser subsidy is estimated at Rs 1,75,100 crore in 2023-24, representing a decrease of Rs 50,120 crore (22.3%) from the revised estimate of 2022-23. The substantial increase in fertiliser subsidy for 2022-23 was in response to a sharp rise in international prices of raw materials used in fertiliser manufacturing.
  • Other subsidies: Expenditure on other subsidies includes interest subsidies for various government schemes, subsidies for the price support scheme for agricultural produce, and assistance to shipbuilding research and development, among others. In 2023-24, expenditure on these other subsidies is estimated to decrease by 30% compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23.

Here is the breakdown of subsidies for the 2023-24:

Subsidies Actuals 2021-22 Budgeted 2022-23 Revised 2022-23 Budgeted 2023-24 % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE)
Food subsidy 2,88,969 2,06,831 2,87,194 1,97,350 -31.3%
Fertiliser subsidy 1,53,758 1,05,222 2,25,220 1,75,100 -22.3%
Petroleum subsidy 3,423 5,813 9,171 2,257 -75.4%
Other subsidies 57,758 37,773 40,495 28,377 -29.9%
Total 5,03,907 3,55,639 5,62,080 4,03,084 -28.3%

This table provides a summary of subsidies allocated for various sectors in 2023-24, along with the percentage change from the revised estimate of the previous financial year.

Expenditure on Major Schemes  

Scheme wise allocation in 2023-24 (Rs crore)

Here is the breakdown of allocations for various schemes for the fiscal year 2023-24:

Scheme Actuals 2021-22 Budgeted 2022-23 Revised 2022-23 Budgeted 2023-24 % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE)
Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana 90,020 48,000 77,130 79,590 3.2%
Jal Jeevan Mission/National Rural Drinking Water Mission 63,126 60,000 55,000 70,000 27.3%
PM-KISAN 66,825 68,000 60,000 60,000 0.0%
MGNREGS 98,468 73,000 89,400 60,000 -32.9%
National Education Mission 25,305 39,553 32,612 38,953 19.4%
National Health Mission 32,958 37,160 33,708 36,785 9.1%
Modified Interest Subvention Scheme* 19,500 22,000 23,000 4.5%
Saksham Anganwadi and POSHAN 2.0 18,382 20,263 20,263 20,554 1.4%
Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana 13,992 19,000 19,000 19,000 0.0%
AMRUT and Smart Cities Mission 13,868 14,100 15,300 16,000 4.6%
National Livelihood Mission-Ajeevika 10,177 14,236 13,886 14,129 1.7%
Guarantee Emergency Credit Line to MSME borrowers 7,445 15,000 10,500 14,100 34.3%
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana 13,549 15,500 12,376 13,625 10.1%
Swachh Bharat Mission 5,050 9,492 7,000 12,192 74.2%
Reform Linked Distribution Scheme 814 7,566 6,000 12,072 101.2%

This table provides details on the allocations for various schemes for the financial year 2023-24, along with the percentage change from the revised estimate of the previous financial year.

The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, comprising both rural and urban components, has been allocated the highest budget of Rs 79,590 crore in 2023-24. This marks a slight increase of 3.2% over the revised estimate of 2022-23. However, when compared to the revised estimates of 2022-23, there has been a 13% increase in the allocation for the rural component of the scheme, while the allocation for the urban component has decreased by 13% in 2023-24. Notably, the allocation for the scheme in 2022-23 saw a significant increase of 60.7% compared to the budget estimates.

In 2023-24, the Jal Jeevan Mission is allocated the second-highest budget of Rs 70,000 crore, representing a notable increase of 27.3% compared to the revised estimate of Rs 55,000 crore in 2022-23.

Allocation for PM-KISAN has been kept constant at Rs 60,000 crore, and for MGNREGS has been reduced by 33% to Rs 60,000 crore. 

Some other schemes with a comparatively higher increase in allocation in 2023-24 include: (i) Reform Linked Distribution Scheme (101.2%), (ii) Swachh Bharat Mission (74.2%), and (iii) Guarantee Emergency Credit Line to MSME borrowers (34.3%).  

Some other schemes experiencing a comparatively higher increase in allocation in 2023-24 include:

(i) Reform Linked Distribution Scheme (101.2%),

(ii) Swachh Bharat Mission (74.2%), and

(iii) Guarantee Emergency Credit Line to MSME borrowers (34.3%).

Loans to states for capital expenditure 

The Center has allocated Rs 1.3 lakh crore for special interest-free loans to states for capital expenditure. The revised estimates for 2022-23, at Rs 76,000 crore, were lower than the budgeted Rs 1 lakh crore.

Expenditure on Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe sub-plans and schemes for welfare of women, children and North Eastern Region  

In 2023-24, Rs 3,27,010 crore has been allocated for programmes aimed at the welfare of women and children, marking a 6.3% increase over the revised estimate of 2022-23. These allocations encompass programmes being implemented across all ministries.

In 2023-24, the allocation for scheduled castes is estimated to increase by 4.3%, while for scheduled tribes, it’s projected to increase by 26.7%. Specifically, the budget for road works under the allocation for the welfare of scheduled tribes has surged by 265% in 2023-24 compared to the revised estimate of 2022-23. Additionally, the allocation for the North Eastern Region is expected to increase by 30.5% in 2023-24 over the revised estimates of 2022-23.

Here are the allocations for women, children, Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and the North Eastern Region (NER) in crores of rupees for the years 2021-22, revised 2022-23, and budgeted 2023-24, along with the percentage change from the revised 2022-23 to the budgeted 2023-24:

  • Welfare of Women:
    • 2021-22 Actuals: ₹2,09,528 crore
    • Revised 2022-23: ₹2,18,487 crore
    • Budgeted 2023-24: ₹2,23,220 crore
    • % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE): 2.2%
  • Welfare of Children:
    • 2021-22 Actuals: ₹73,199 crore
    • Revised 2022-23: ₹89,008 crore
    • Budgeted 2023-24: ₹1,03,791 crore
    • % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE): 16.6%
  • Scheduled Castes:
    • 2021-22 Actuals: ₹1,21,614 crore
    • Revised 2022-23: ₹1,52,604 crore
    • Budgeted 2023-24: ₹1,59,126 crore
    • % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE): 4.3%
  • Scheduled Tribes:
    • 2021-22 Actuals: ₹83,921 crore
    • Revised 2022-23: ₹94,293 crore
    • Budgeted 2023-24: ₹1,19,510 crore
    • % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE): 26.7%
  • North Eastern Region (NER):
    • Revised 2022-23: ₹72,540 crore
    • Budgeted 2023-24: ₹94,680 crore
    • % change (2022-23 RE to 2023-24 BE): 30.5%

Source : https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/doc/Budget_at_Glance/bag1.pdf

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